Tropical Weather

Galveston is no stranger to tropical weather. During hurricane season, from June 1st through November 30th, Galvestonians keep a close eye on the Gulf, and to trusted weather sources. This is also the height of the tourism season for the island. We’ve compiled tropical weather data below to help you plan your travels.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ mainly W of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward across central Florida and to the north-central Gulf. This is producing gentle SE winds in the eastern Gulf E of 87W and fresh SE winds over the rest of the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft E of 88W, and 4 to 6 ft west of 88W. No significant convection is occurring in the basin, but haze due to agricultural fires in SE Mexico continues to restrict visibility across the western Gulf. In addition, patchy fog is occurring where sea surface temperatures are lowest, in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh SE winds will prevail across much of the Gulf through tonight ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri and will move across most of the basin into Sat. The front will slow down and weaken further, then extend from South Florida to the bay of Campeche by late Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front into. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico persists in the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western Atlantic, and stretches southwestward across the NW Caribbean. The upper trough will continue to move farther northeast of the area through tonight, with atmospheric conditions stabilizing in its wake. Abundant tropical moisture remains prevalent just east of the NE Caribbean. Persistent daily rainfall across the Greater Antilles and NE Caribbean Islands for the past several days has left soils at or near saturation, and river levels high across this region. Please see local weather advisories for specific information on hazardous local conditions.

The Bermuda ridge is centered across the central Atlantic and extends its ridge westward to central Florida. This pattern is producing moderate to fresh trades over the south-central and SE Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail across the Gulf of Honduras, where seas have built to 4 to 6 ft. The remainder of the basin is under gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and SE Caribbean through the weekend, with some increasing winds possible early next week. Meanwhile, expect pulses of fresh to locally strong E winds at night across the Gulf of Honduras into the start of next week due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of troughs are located along 58W and 65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough near 58W, with moderate to locally fresh winds noted east of the trough between 53W-58W. To the west, mainly gentle southerly flow prevails, but moderate to fresh SW winds have developed N and W of a line from South Florida to Bermuda. The trough in the far eastern Atlantic has dissipated, and this part of the basin is now dominated by an Azores high, with mainly gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. S o 20 N, moderate to locally fresh trades dominate.

For the forecast west of 55W, for most of the basin, winds will diminish today as the high pressure shifts E. However, as a cold front approaches the US East Coast, fresh to strong winds will develop off northeast Florida, then prevail through Fri night. The front will move across Florida Sat, bringing moderate to fresh winds behind it. The front will weaken Sun as it moves east of 65W.

Konari